Lafayette vs American
Lafayette -2½ -108 over American

Posted at 12:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle -2½ -108   BET365  -½ -110 Sportsinteraction -½ -110 888Sport -½ -110

Kirby Sports Center, Easton, PA

Streaming: CBS Sports Network (CBSSN)

Lafayette -2½ over American

4:00 PM EST. This game is part of the Patriot League conference tournament and neither of these teams are projected to do any carnage but stranger things have happened and Lafayette is much more prepared to do some damage than American but the betting public remains mostly unaware. That makes the Leopards of Lafayette the reduced rate/bargain play of the day.

While these two teams have identical 7-11 records in conference play, American’s overall record is 17-14 while Lafayette’s overall record is 10-22. We have said it a million times that the market and media’s fascination with wins and losses influence the line to a massive degree and it’s something we’ll continue to try and exploit. On paper, American appears to be the better squad because of their 17-14 overall record compared to the Leopards 11-20 overall record but nothing could be further from the truth.

American’s non-conference Strength of Schedule (SOS) ranked 352nd in the country out of 363 Division I schools. That is why they racked up a 10-3 out of conference record. Meanwhile, Lafayette racked up just three wins against 10 losses out of conference but did so after playing the 85th ranked SOS in the country. That’s 267 positions in terms of tougher opposition that Lafayette played and it is why they are more prepared to do some carnage in the conference tournament than American is. Incidentally, in their non-conference slate, Lafayette lost to both Penn State and Miami by just 13 points. They lost to St. Joe’s by just four. They lost to the Johnnies by just 15, They played Princeton and Penn and lost to the latter in OT. The Leopards crushed La Salle by 25 and lost to Drexel by just eight points. Thus, while the market trusts they are getting the better team with the better record, we promise you they are not. This game is being played at Lafayette’s home arena and they should be a six point fav or more. We truly get the Leopards at a bargain.


Our Pick

Lafayette -2½ -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)