Posted at 11:15 AM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle +7 -109   BET365  +7 -110 Sportsinteraction +7 -110 888Sport +7 -110

Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI

Streaming: ESPN

Ohio St +7 over Michigan St

12:00 PM EST. Michigan State is going dancing while the Buckeyes need to win the conference tournament to earn an automatic bid otherwise they’ll be an NIT team after Selection Sunday. As it stands right now, Michigan is a #7 seed but this is still an important game for the Spartans, as a loss here might lower their seeding and might even put them on the bubble. Ohio State is tuning up for the conference tournament but with ESPN cameras on site (this game is on ESPN at noon), OSU will be highly motivated too in this nationally televised game. That’s the setup for this one but let’s move on to the meat.

It was less than a month ago on February 12th that the Spratans played at Ohio State and were listed as a +4½-point pooch. The efficient market was salivating over Sparty and what happened next was very gratifying. The efficient market ate well in a 62-41 MSU blowout. Imagine if you bet on Ohio State that game and watched it (like we did). It was pure torture and now we’re supposed to make that same bet with this one being played in East Lansing? We can almost guarantee you that less than 2% of the folks that bet on OSU that day are coming back on them here but it’s the prudent play.

OSU cannot be -4½ and then +7 in a three week span against the same team. That’s an 11½-point swing based on recency bias. Forget the score, as OSU was ice cold that day (5 of 29 from beyond the arc) and frustrated. Michigan State was supposed to be the sucker bet of the day back in February but instead, they turned out to be the lock of the day. Do not double down on MSU. By the oddsmakers own admission, OSU and Sparty is a dead even matchup and we’re here to take advantage of a bad price. Man, are these points inflated.

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