Posted at 4:00 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle  -2½ -110 BET365 -2½ -110  SportsInteraction -2½ -110  888Sport -2½ -110

Value City Arena, Columbus, OH

Streaming: FS1

Ohio St -2½ over Penn St

6:30 PM EST. Penn State won its last road game, at Minnesota by 7. Prior to beating the pathetic Gophers, Penn State’s last road win was at Illinois on December 10th, which was in the neighborhood of 10 weeks ago. Not only did it take the Gophers to end Penn State’s road woes, but many of the Lions losses over that span were of the blowout variety but five of them were by double digits including a 20-point loss at Rutgers and another 20 point loss at Purdue. However, Penn State is just two games under .500 in the conference at 7-9 while the Buckeyes hold a conference mark of 3-15. The market sees wins and losses as the most defining measure of a team’s true value, which in this case provides us with another great opportunity to get behind a team the market does not trust for a second but man, this one checks a lot of boxes.

First box to check is that Ohio State hasn’t covered in eight straight games. Since the point-spread is supposed to be the great equalizer, OSU’s record against the spread is an absolute outlier but what it has done is forced the oddsmakers into decreasing OSU’s true value. Fading the Buckeyes has been gold and oddsmakers do not like that.

The next box to check is for the injury chasers, as OSU’s big man and key piece, Zed Key is out for the remainder of the year. He was the heart and soul of the Buckeyes, who was averaging 13.4 points and 8.4 rebounds, had posted five double-doubles and was shooting 69.8% on two-point field goals. Dude will be missed greatly and they weren’t even winning with him. Now Ohio State has to pivot in the paint and turn its focus to Key’s primary understudy in freshman Felix Okpara. At 6-11, 220 pounds, Okpara presents a decidedly different physical profile than the 6-8, 255-pound Key. A raw, springy athlete who will spend the offseason growing his offensive game and trying to put on some muscle, he will get the bulk of the minutes in Key’s absence. Market does not like that either.

Trust us when we scream at the top of our lungs that oddsmakers are aware that Zed Key is out. Folks will bet on Penn State here because they think they’re getting an edge with a player of Key’s ability not in the lineup. It should actually have the opposite effect. Folks getting behind PSU will be paying a premium because Key is out and not getting a bargain. We have a double overcompensation at work here with OSU not covering in what seems like forever and Zed key being out. The result is that we get the Buckeyes at a true bargain to snap out of it.

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