Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:45 PM EST odds are subject to change.
FAU Arena, Boca Raton, FL
UAB +115 over FAU
7:00 PM EST. UAB is a solid mid-major that is the superior squad here and that will have the best player on the floor but that’s all we’re going to say about the Blazers, as this is a pure fade on FAU.
FAU is 12-1. They are ranked 39th in the country which in itself is absurd but there is so much more to digest. Remarkably, the Owls are 10-1 Against the Spread (aka the great equalizer). FAU’s streak against the number is approaching unprecedented territory because covering every game is much more difficult than just winning. No team in college basketball (363 teams) has paid out more frequently or at a higher percentage than the Florida Atlantic Owls, a team with a horseshoe up its rear end. FAU’s charmed life cannot last and so we’ll go back to the well here.
North Texas was a -2½-point favorite over FAU last game out. The Mean Green held a 46-37 lead with 5:46 remaining. Take a guess at how many points North Texas ended up with. If you said 46, you would be correct. The Mean Green would not score another point and would lose 50-46. Trust us when we say it wasn’t because FAU’s defense was swarming.
Two games ago against Northern Kentucky, the Owls were a -14½-point favorite. FAU was up 54-48 with 6:18 left. NKU would score 4 more points the rest of the way and lose by 15. Here is an Owls’ team that has defied the odds with miracle covers in at least five games this season. This is not some Disney movie we’re discussing here. It’s real but the Owls are not the 39th best team in the country. When you are held to 50 points, you are not supposed to win. When you have 54 points and are spotting 14½ with 6 minutes to go, you’re not supposed to cover. The Owls have played the 246th ranked non-conference Strength of Schedule in America and are not nearly as impressive as their straight up or ATS record suggests.
UAB +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)