Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
Detroit -10½ -108 over Washington
7:00 PM EST. Spotting double digits with a road favorite is usually not in our wheelhouse but there are exceptions, and Washington's schedule has created one of them. This selection has considerably less to do with Detroit's talent than it does with the situation confronting the Wizards, who have been dragged through a scheduling meat grinder.
Washington will be playing its sixth game in nine nights, fifth in seven, and the second half of a back-to-back after visiting Indiana last night. Even more remarkable, the Wizards have played 12 consecutive games in 12 different cities. That's not a basketball schedule. That's a touring rock band without the luxury of a sound check. The accumulated travel, disrupted routines and lack of recovery time eventually catch up with a team, and Washington is reaching the point where those circumstances become impossible to ignore.
The warning signs were evident in Indianapolis. Washington managed to stay even through three quarters before the Pacers opened the fourth with 14 unanswered points and eventually won the period 37-24. That's a particularly ugly finish for a team already dealing with an exhausting stretch. The Wizards have now dropped five straight, and instead of getting a much-needed day to recover, they're right back on the floor against a rested opponent.
Detroit, meanwhile, arrives with a 7-3 record and hasn't played since Monday. That difference in preparation and recovery is significant. The Pistons have been defending well, allowing just 104.6 points per game while holding opponents to 43% shooting and forcing 18 turnovers per contest. Those numbers are encouraging, but they're secondary to the scheduling advantage. Detroit has had time to rest, prepare and practice while Washington has been living out of suitcases and playing basketball every other night.
The market isn't giving anything away by hanging Detroit as a 10½-point road favorite. That's a substantial number, and under ordinary circumstances it would be enough to send us looking elsewhere. But circumstances are precisely what make this matchup appealing. Washington is being asked to produce another competitive effort on virtually no recovery time, against a quality defensive opponent that has enjoyed a considerable rest advantage. Sometimes the most important statistic isn't buried in a box score. It's sitting right there on the schedule.
Our Pick
Detroit -10½ -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)