Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Dallas +5½ -110 over Minnesota

8:00 PM EST. Dallas is coming in hot and the market is still treating the Mavericks like a team that needs an invitation. Three straight wins, and this group has covered in each of its last four games as an underdog, including a 3-1 mark against the spread on the road. The star power is real and it is in form. Cooper Flagg is averaging 25.9 a game and Kyrie Irving is at 22.9, and Irving just poured in 35 on Monday in full attack mode. When Kyrie is cooking like that, Dallas has a closer for the final five minutes, and close games on the road are won by the team with the guy who can get his own shot whenever he wants it.

Minnesota is the favourite, but look at who is not on the floor. Anthony Edwards is out after knee surgery until around December 20, and Donte DiVincenzo is gone until April with an Achilles injury. Those are two starters, two of the Timberwolves' best perimeter defenders and shot creators, and no matter how well LaMelo Ball and Ayo Dosunmu have filled in, the ceiling of this Minnesota team without Edwards is a different ceiling. Dallas, meanwhile, is getting healthy at the right time: Caleb Martin is available, Morez Johnson Jr. is probable, and Daniel Gafford holds down the middle with Dereck Lively still out. Both teams have had a few days off, so nobody is sneaking a rest night in here, and a rested Dallas team with two closers is not a team you lay five and a half against with confidence.

This is a game Dallas can win outright, and the points are a bonus. Minnesota has been a cover machine, sure, but that just means the price is inflated on a favourite missing its best player, and inflated prices are where underdogs eat. Flagg and Irving against a short-handed backcourt, a Mavericks team that covers as a dog like it is a habit, and a spread that asks Minnesota to win by six.

Sportsinteraction