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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

OKC +140 over Houston

8:30 PM EST. Houston is the team the market loves tonight, and we get why. The Rockets are 5-1, the offense is humming since Fred VanVleet came back, and Kevin Durant is Kevin Durant. But look at the schedule, not the standings. Houston played last night, lost its first game of the season to Dallas in NBA Cup play, and now turns right around for the second night of a back-to-back, its sixth game in nine nights. That is a tired basketball team, and tired teams do not beat good teams, let alone cover against them.

And Oklahoma City is a good team, even banged up. Yes, the injuries are real. Holmgren is out for weeks with a knee injury, Williams and Wallace are likely gone for the season, and Caruso is out too. That is exactly why we are getting +140 instead of laying a price. The market has already priced every one of those injuries into this number. What it has not priced in is Houston running on fumes on the second night of a back-to-back while the Thunder had Friday off after their own loss to Dallas on Thursday. Both teams just lost to Dallas, by the way. Only one of them had to play again last night.

So this is the spot: fade the tired favorite, take the rested dog at plus money. OKC does not need to be at full strength to beat a team playing its sixth game in nine nights on no rest. They need Shai to be Shai, they need the depth they still have up front, and they need Houston's legs to go in the fourth quarter, which is what happens to teams on the second night of a back-to-back. At +140, we are being paid to find out. Recommendation: OKC +140

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