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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Atlanta +105 over New York

NBA Playoff Series Game 3

7:00 PM EST. Game 2 wasn’t just a win for the Atlanta Hawks—it was a momentum shift. Atlanta erased a double-digit deficit and completely flipped the script late, outscoring the New York Knicks in the fourth quarter while dictating pace and creating better looks down the stretch. Now the series heads to Atlanta, where the Hawks have been dominant, winning 14 of their last 15 at home. That matters, because this is a team built on rhythm and tempo, and they’re far more dangerous when they control the environment and speed of the game.

The biggest edge in this matchup is pace and offensive flow. Atlanta leads the league in assists and sits near the top in shot volume, which creates constant pressure on opposing defenses. CJ McCollum showed in Game 2 that he can take over stretches offensively, and when the Hawks are moving the ball like they did in that comeback, they become extremely difficult to contain. New York, meanwhile, thrives in a slower, more physical game, but their defense has shown cracks on the road, and they struggled to get stops once Atlanta found its rhythm. If this turns into a higher-possession game, it favors the Hawks significantly.

New York will still have success on the glass—that’s their identity—but that alone isn’t enough if they can’t control tempo or sustain offensive efficiency for four quarters. The Knicks’ late-game collapse in Game 2 highlights a concern that’s followed them: when the offense stalls, they don’t have the same shot creation depth. Atlanta does, especially at home, where role players tend to elevate. With the Hawks trending upward, thriving in this building, and now holding a clear stylistic edge, backing Atlanta on the moneyline at plus value is the right side in a series that’s starting to tilt in their favor.

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