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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Memphis +145 over Golden State

7:30 PM EST There’s sneaky value on the Memphis Grizzlies at home in this spot, particularly with the market leaning toward Golden State’s shooting profile. Memphis may be just 17-22 in conference play and slightly negative in scoring margin, but context matters. The Grizzlies are playing at one of the fastest paces in the league and have averaged nearly 120 points per game over their last 10 contests. Even during a 3-7 stretch, their offensive production hasn’t disappeared — the issue has been defensive lapses. In a matchup where both teams prefer space and perimeter volume, Memphis’ tempo can flip the script and create a higher-possession environment that favors the home side.

The Golden State Warriors remain dangerous from three, ranking near the top of the Western Conference in perimeter efficiency, but they’re navigating key absences and lineup instability. Without their usual offensive engine fully healthy, Golden State has leaned heavily on role players and high-variance shooting nights. That style can steal games, but it also creates volatility — especially on the road. Memphis, meanwhile, still ranks top five in assists per game, showing that ball movement and offensive structure remain intact even with injuries. If the Grizzlies can generate paint touches early and force defensive rotations, they’ll find clean perimeter looks of their own against a Warriors defense allowing 12.5 made threes per game.

From a value perspective, this game comes down to situational edges. Golden State is on the second night of a back-to-back, while Memphis returns home where role players typically shoot better and energy levels rise. The previous meeting was decided by a single point, reinforcing how thin the margin is between these teams. In what profiles as a tight, up-and-down contest, backing the Grizzlies at home provides the stronger angle. With pace, playmaking, and motivation on their side, Memphis has a legitimate opportunity to protect its floor and come out on top tonight.

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