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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Dallas/Lakers over 234

10:00 PM EST The value in this matchup isn’t necessarily picking a side — it’s attacking the total. This game profiles as one where pace and efficiency can push it higher than the market expects. The Lakers average nearly 116 points per game and tend to thrive offensively at home, where role players shoot better and tempo increases. Dallas, despite its struggles and long losing streak, still plays at a pace that creates possessions, and their defensive issues have been a major reason for their slide. When a team is allowing over 117 points per game and consistently falling behind, games naturally tilt toward higher-scoring scripts as they’re forced to chase.

Los Angeles’ offensive splits are particularly important here. When the Lakers cross the 117-point threshold, they not only win at a high rate, but they also tend to clear totals because of the pace they establish. Dallas, meanwhile, has shown that when it scores above its season average, games frequently become track meets rather than defensive battles. The Mavericks’ offense hasn’t been consistent enough to win games, but it has been capable of producing in bunches, especially from the perimeter. Against a Lakers defense that ranks in the middle of the league in points allowed, there should be opportunities for Dallas to contribute enough scoring to keep this total climbing.

Another factor pointing toward the over is game flow. The Lakers are sizable favorites, and blowout potential can actually help an over if the trailing team plays faster and empties the bench into looser defensive rotations late. With both teams carrying negative scoring differentials on the season, neither has been consistently locking opponents down. Add in the Lakers’ elevated implied team total and Dallas’ tendency to give up big nights to opposing offenses, and this number feels reachable. If both teams land near their projected scoring ranges, the over becomes less about perfection and more about standard offensive output — which makes it the sharper value play tonight.

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