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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Indiana +12 -110 over NY Knicks

7:30 PM EST This Knicks–Pacers matchup looks lopsided at first glance, which is exactly why Indiana catching double digits deserves a closer look from a value perspective. New York is rolling, tied near the top of the Eastern Conference and playing elite basketball on both ends, especially at home. Jalen Brunson is in complete control of the offense, and the supporting cast has been consistent enough to turn solid performances into comfortable wins. That recent blowout of Boston only reinforces how high the Knicks’ ceiling is right now. However, when spreads climb into the double digits point range, the question shifts from “who is better?” to “how likely is a full 48-minute effort?” The Knicks don’t need style points, and with a favorable spot in the standings, they’re often content to manage games once they gain control rather than chase margin late.

Indiana comes in battered and sliding, but that losing streak is already baked heavily into the number. The Pacers’ biggest issues — defensive rotations, rebounding, and consistency — are real, yet they don’t always translate into non-competitive games. Even in losses, Indiana has been able to score in stretches and keep games from completely getting away, particularly when Pascal Siakam is aggressive early. The Pacers also move the ball well and can generate offense when defenses relax, which is important when backing a large underdog. New York’s defensive strength is undeniable, but that same discipline can sometimes lead to slower tempos and longer possessions, which naturally favors a team trying to stay inside a big spread rather than win outright.

The value in Indiana plus the points comes from game flow more than matchup edges. New York is the more complete team and should win, but asking them to consistently separate by double digits against a team desperate to stop the bleeding is a tall order. The Pacers know they’re overmatched, which often leads to looser, more aggressive offense and extended minutes for primary scorers — exactly what underdogs need to hang around. Add in the fact that Indiana pushed New York to the wire in the first meeting and that the Knicks are coming off an emotional high, and this sets up as a classic “win but don’t cover” spot. Indiana doesn’t need to fix all its problems; it just needs to compete, score enough late, and take advantage of any Knicks letdown. From a betting standpoint, grabbing the points offers the sharper value play tonight.

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