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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Dallas +6 -110 over San Antonio

8:30 PM EST Dallas is not a team most bettors want to click right now, which is exactly why this spot creates value. The Mavericks are buried in the West standings, coming off a five-game losing streak, and just reshaped their roster in a way that screams transition rather than contention. All of that is baked heavily into the line. What isn’t priced as aggressively is the situational angle: Dallas is back home, catching a Spurs team on the second night of a back-to-back, and playing with the kind of looseness that often shows up right after a franchise-altering trade. When expectations drop this low, the market tends to overcorrect, especially against a team that’s been red-hot and trendy like San Antonio.

On the floor, Dallas’ path to an upset is narrow but very real. Cooper Flagg has become the offensive engine, and San Antonio’s defense is far more vulnerable on the road when forced into half-court possessions rather than transition chaos. The Spurs’ depth is impressive, but they still rely heavily on Victor Wembanyama to anchor both ends, and fatigue matters for big men on short rest. Dallas, meanwhile, doesn’t need to be efficient across the board — they need one more scorer to show up alongside Flagg and to slow the game down. That plays into the Mavericks’ strengths, especially at home, where role players tend to shoot more confidently and rotations shorten in competitive games.

From a betting perspective, this isn’t about pretending Dallas is suddenly better than San Antonio. It’s about price versus probability. The Spurs are being valued like a team that should roll through bad opponents regardless of spot, and that’s rarely profitable long-term in the NBA. Dallas has historically covered — and outright won — in these ugly underdog home situations following losses, while San Antonio has struggled to justify heavy road favoritism against teams with nothing to lose. If this game stays close into the fourth quarter, pressure flips entirely onto the Spurs, not the rebuilding Mavericks. That’s where underdog value lives, and that’s why Dallas to cover the spread makes sense as a contrarian but well-timed play.

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