Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
Atlanta +145 over Houston
8:00PM EST Atlanta comes into this matchup playing its best basketball of the season, and the market still hasn’t fully adjusted. The Hawks have rattled off four straight wins and did it against legitimate competition, showing sharper ball movement, better defensive engagement, and far more confidence on offense. Jalen Johnson has emerged as the engine of this team, impacting every area of the floor, while Atlanta’s supporting cast has consistently stepped up in key moments. At home, where the Hawks are far more comfortable pushing pace, this is a team trending up at exactly the right time.
Houston remains one of the better teams in the West, but their recent loss exposed a familiar vulnerability: offensive stagnation when opponents wall off the paint. The Rockets rely heavily on interior scoring, and when that advantage is neutralized, their efficiency drops noticeably. On the road, those issues are magnified, especially against teams willing to run and force them into quicker decisions. Atlanta’s ability to generate steals and convert in transition gives them a pathway to disrupt Houston’s preferred style.
From a value perspective, the plus price on Atlanta is the key factor. This isn’t a case of backing an inferior team blindly—it’s about recognizing momentum, matchup, and timing. Houston is being priced as the steadier side based on season-long results, while Atlanta’s recent surge is being discounted. In a game that profiles as competitive from start to finish, taking the Hawks to win outright at home offers a strong risk-reward opportunity.
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Our Pick
Atlanta +145 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)