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Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Indiana +8 -110 over Philadelphia

7PM EST Indiana comes into this matchup in a classic buy-low spot, which is exactly where betting value is often created. The blowout loss in Detroit looks alarming on the surface, but it also inflates the perception gap between these teams far more than the actual difference in quality. Prior to that game, the Pacers had quietly stabilized with four wins in six games, showing improved effort and pace on both ends. One disastrous shooting night — especially one that featured historically poor first-half offense — is far more likely to be an outlier than a new trend. Public reaction tends to overcorrect after ugly losses, and that’s how a number like +8 starts to carry value rather than risk.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, is being priced as a team far more reliable than its recent results suggest. The 76ers have struggled badly in this exact role, consistently failing to separate from Central Division opponents and repeatedly coming up short against the number after losses as favorites. Their defensive issues are especially concerning: opponents have been able to shoot efficiently, win the rebounding battle, and stretch the floor against them, all signs of a team lacking cohesion and consistent rim protection. Even in their most recent outing, Philadelphia allowed Cleveland to dictate tempo, dominate the glass, and shoot comfortably from deep, turning the game into a non-competitive affair early. That kind of defensive vulnerability makes it difficult to justify laying a large number, regardless of opponent.

From a matchup and value perspective, Indiana is well equipped to stay within this spread. The Pacers play aggressively on defense, forcing turnovers, drawing fouls, and preventing teams from getting easy perimeter looks — traits that naturally keep games closer than expected. While Indiana does give up points, their style tends to generate extra possessions and free-throw opportunities, which is crucial when catching a sizable number. Historically, this spot has also favored Indiana, as they’ve consistently responded well as underdogs against Philadelphia following losses. With Philadelphia struggling to cover at home and Indiana entering with something to prove after an embarrassing performance, taking the Pacers +8 isn’t about chasing an upset — it’s about grabbing points with the more undervalued side in a game unlikely to justify such a wide margin.

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