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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

CLEVELAND -4.5 over Minnesota

Rocket Fieldhouse – Cleveland, OH

1:00 PM ET. The betting market loves simple storylines, and this matchup offers an easy one: Minnesota just won by nine two days ago in Minneapolis, so why not run it back? But that surface-level view ignores the most important detail of the first meeting — it wasn’t a clean Minnesota win. It was one explosive quarter that decided the result.

These teams were basically even at halftime. Then Minnesota erupted for 43 points in the third quarter, while Cleveland collapsed offensively with 22. That single stretch created the gap. And yet even with that, Cleveland didn’t fold. The Cavaliers clawed all the way back, trimming what was a 19-point deficit late in the third to a four-point game with a minute remaining. That matters, because it tells you Cleveland can compete with Minnesota possession-for-possession once the game stabilizes.

Now zoom out to the situational layer. This is a back-to-back rematch, which already makes repeating outcomes difficult. But it’s also a rematch with the venue flipped to Cleveland, where the Cavs’ energy, defensive intensity, and shooting comfort typically sharpen. Minnesota is being asked not only to beat the same opponent twice, but to do it again immediately, after Cleveland has already felt the matchup, adjusted to the tendencies, and seen what worked and what didn’t.

That’s the hidden value contrary to popular opinion. That's why the Cavs are the chalk. Cleveland doesn’t need to reinvent itself — it just needs to remove one bad stretch. The Wolves’ third-quarter blitz was real, but it was also extreme. If that quarter regresses even slightly toward normal output, and the Cavaliers simply play a steady 48 minutes, they’re in position to win.

Recency bias will naturally push money towards Minnesota. The final score makes Cleveland look like the lesser side. But optics mean nothing and the full-game script says otherwise. If Cleveland can avoid an outlier catastrophic quarter with a home setting that helps that — they win. The oddsmakers already see the fine print and they are tipping their hand. That's why the Cavs are favored here. That's our cue to move in hard on The Land.  

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