Pinnacle  -6.5 -110 BET365  -6.5 -110  Sportsinteraction  -6.5 -110  888Sport  -6.5 -110

Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Dallas -6.5 over UTAH

Vivint Arena – Salt Lake City, UT

9:00 PM ET. Utah just pushed Oklahoma City to the brink as a massive 19-point underdog, losing by only four points in a high-octane 129–125 game. That kind of performance sticks in bettors’ minds, especially when it comes on the road against the league’s elite team and defending champion. Naturally, the market response has been swift and predictable: rush to back the Jazz with a healthy amount of points. That’s precisely where the trap lies. Not only is this a zig-zag in every sense of the word, it is also backing a side a game too late.

Yesterday, no one was giving the Notes a chance. That’s why they were a near 20-point pup but the Jazz defied expectations in spades. Utah’s effort last night was admirable, but it was also emotionally and physically taxing. Teams with the Jazz’s profile empty the tank in these “nothing to lose” spots, only to come out flat in the second leg of a back-to-back. The price reflects that but the key here is market psychology. If Utah’s near-upset truly changed their underlying outlook, this number wouldn’t exist. Instead, Dallas is still laying a significant amount of lumber and unlike OKC they are a losing basketball team with quirks of their own. But the fine print tells you everything, it tells you that the oddsmakers aren’t buying yesterday’s result wholesale and neither should we. The market is reacting to a single result rather than the broader reality: Utah remains a developing roster with depth issues and inconsistent defense.

This is a classic case of sentiment versus signal. The sentiment screams “take the points.” The signal says otherwise. We are trusting the number and fading the overreaction. Lay the points.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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