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Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Houston -110 ML over DENVER

Ball Arena - Denver, CO

5:00 PM ET. At first glance, this feels like a spot where bettors instinctively side with Denver. The Nuggets have won and covered four straight against H-Town, and they carry the championship pedigree that naturally attracts market confidence. But this is precisely where caution is required, because the surface-level story masks what actually happened when these two teams last met.

Just five days ago in Denver, this matchup needed overtime to determine a winner. That alone tells us the teams are mirror images of each other. If Denver truly held a decisive edge, that game would not have required extra basketball on their home floor. Instead, Houston proved it could go toe-to-toe, absorb runs, and execute late. This contest is priced as a pick em for a reason — and the rematch is no different, even if the experts suggest otherwise.

The issue now is recency bias. Denver has inflated their market clout, while Houston remains treated like the inferior side despite evidence to the contrary. Houston’s athleticism, physicality, and ability to defend allow them to hang in games, period. They don’t need to dominate Denver — they simply need to play their game and for things to fall their way this time around. The previous tilt days ago showed that’s well within their capability. Houston has already shown they belong on the floor with Denver, and now they’re overlooked simply because the market is leaning too heavily on recent results overall. We won't. Houston gets it done this time.

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