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Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

PORTLAND -1 over San Antonio

Rose Garden at the Moda Center – Portland, OR

NBA Cup

10:00 PM ET. This line speaks louder than any matchup breakdown ever could. If you scan sharper books across the market, Portland is sitting at -2 or -2.5, clearly insulated above the consensus number. That alone tells us something important: sharper operators are more than comfortable encouraging action on the trendy underdog, San Antonio. And trendy is exactly what the Spurs are right now. At 11–5, they’ve become one of the feel-good revelations of the 2025–26 campaign, outperforming expectations and cashing tickets in the process.

Portland, meanwhile, has moved in the opposite direction. After a promising start, the Blazers sit at 8–10 and have fallen out of public favor. This is where value often hides — in teams whose shine has worn off just enough for the market to drift from their true capacity. But the most important detail is Victor Wembanyama’s absence. The Spurs’ engine, the piece that makes their system hum, is sidelined. The market continues to price them with the glow of their early-season surge rather than the practical impact of losing a generational fulcrum. Optics, not substance, are shaping the number.

Portland, at home, is always a different animal. Rip City traditionally elevates its energy level, and with the Spurs attracting casual dollars because of the record disparity, the Blazers become the undervalued favorite in a position where sharp outfits expect them to capitalize. Lay the bucket and see you on the other side.

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