Pinnacle   +125   BET365   +125  Sportsinteraction  +125  888port  +125

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Utah +125 over Phoenix

Mortgage Matchup Center – Phoenix, AZ NBA Cup

10:00 PM ET. Is this a rerun of this soap opera? Utah and Phoenix met last week, the Suns came in with a nine-game winning streak over the Jazz, the market loaded up on Phoenix in “the obvious spot”, and Utah punched them in the mouth, snapping the streak in overtime. So, what happens now? The market is doubling down and assumes that the previous result was a fluke. Utah “got lucky,” the Suns are in the “revenge spot,” and Phoenix is still priced as the superior, inevitable side. However, that may very well be the wrong read.

The problem with that? Revenge plays make for some of the worst tickets written in the NBA. If “they lost last time” were a reliable betting edge, sportsbooks wouldn’t exist. The Jazz didn’t stumble backward into that win — they executed and demonstrated the matchup formula to frustrate Phoenix. When styles and matchups align, past dominance doesn’t matter as much as bettors think. The market hasn’t fully adjusted to that reality.

Phoenix is still priced on reputation and the belief they “should be” better than Utah. But at this moment in time, these teams are far closer and yet the Suns are still being priced at a premium. Utah is again catching points in a matchup where they’ve already proven they can compete wire-to-wire. The value remains with the dog until the adjustment comes. Jazz again, please.

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