Pinnacle   +105   BET365  +105  Sportsinteraction  +105  888port  +105

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Portland +105 over Golden State

Rose Garden at the Moda Center – Portland, OR

10:00 PM ET. We’re heading right back to the well with Portland — and for good reason. Wednesday’s loss to Minnesota was hardly discouraging; the Blazers fought wire-to-wire, covering as a 4.5-point underdog in a narrow 118–114 defeat. We unfortunately had the Blazers to win outright but nevertheless the situational dynamics surrounding this matchup create another opportunity to find value with Portland and sell-high on Golden State.

A lot has happened since Wednesday. The Blazers have found themselves in the media crosshairs after reports surfaced linking head coach Chauncey Billups to alleged illegal poker betting. Add to that the broader NBA controversy involving other players and gambling investigations, and Portland suddenly carries the public’s scorn. The perception now is that this team is distracted, unstable, and not to be trusted. But when perception drives betting behavior, value inevitably follows.

Golden State, meanwhile, couldn’t be hotter out of the gate. The Warriors are 2-0 both straight up and against the spread, fresh off an emotional overtime win over Denver where Steph Curry exploded for 42 points. The market is enamored with them — but the circumstances scream let-down. This is the second night of a back-to-back, following a grueling extra-period game at. Fatigue, travel, and emotional hangover all favor the rested home side.

Despite the Warriors’ nine straight wins in this series, the oddsmakers have installed Portland as the favorite. That alone should raise every eyebrow. When a market darling riding momentum faces a team clouded by controversy — and the latter is laying points — it’s a signal that the book is tipping their hand but daring you to get behind said market darling. That’s the trap.

This is the exact kind of contrarian setup that defines early-season edges. The noise around Portland creates the opportunity, not the obstacle. We’re siding with Rip City.

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