Pinnacle   -7½  -110   BET365  -7½ -110  Sportsinteraction  -7½ -110  888port  -7½ -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Oklahoma City -7½ over Indiana

Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

7:30 PM ET. This line looks heavy on the surface — road chalk on opening night in a building that’s been a tough out for most of the league, but surface reads are how bad numbers survive. Oklahoma City laying under double digits here is cheap, and if you strip away the emotion of “Finals rematch” and “revenge,” this is one of the more mispriced openers on the board.

Indiana was a great story last season — young, fearless, fast. That story ended the second Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles went. There’s no version of this roster that replaces what he did, and there’s no version of this team that looks remotely the same without him running the show. Myles Turner is gone too, which means there’s not a single rim deterrent left to protect an undersized backcourt that’s now being asked to manufacture offense against one of the NBA’s most disruptive defensive teams.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma City didn’t fluke their way to the Finals — they built toward it for years and still might not have hit their ceiling. They return the reigning MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a 7-foot unicorn in Chet Holmgren, and a system that’s built on depth, length, and composure. They opened the season in a 125–124 double-overtime war against Houston where Shai didn’t look right for three quarters, then calmly scored 24 points in crunch time and extra sessions to drag them over the line. That’s what elite teams do — they win their bad nights.

Now they catch a Pacers squad that’s a shell of the one that pushed them last June. Indiana’s new core — Nembhard, Siakam, Mathurin, and Nesmith — can play, but this is a team being priced on reputation, not roster. There’s no playmaking redundancy here. If Siakam isn’t carrying them, they stall. Carlisle will preach “grit,” but grit without creation is just trying hard while down double-digits.

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