Pinnacle -1 +100 BET365 +1 -115 Sportsinteraction -1½ +100 888Sport +1½  -118

Posted at 11:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

NBA Finals, Game 5

American Airlines Arena: Dallas, TX

Live on ABC and ESPN

Wager: Boston -1 (best odds: +100 at Pinnacle)

8:40 PM EST. By now it’s no mystery that the Dallas Mavericks are out of their element in the NBA Finals. We could discuss Luka Doncic’s lack of endurance or his proclivity to hurt his team while he chases after the officials, or we could list Boston’s many matchup advantages up and down their roster. We could also talk about the differences in size and athleticism that the Celtics bring to every contest, or that no starting-five is as offensively talented as the parts they’ve assembled. It’s worth mentioning that Boston’s core could not get it done in any previous season without the unparalleled surrounding talent they’ve placed around Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, which makes their current run a little sickening. Not only have they comprised one of the greatest rosters of all time, but they were gifted one of the easiest cadre of opponents leading up to the championship round. Regardless, as bettors, we cannot sink into our biases and allow another obvious value opportunity to slip by.

The Mavericks biggest hurdle tonight will be psychological, the gargantuan task of believing that they still have a chance to win the title, down 0-3, against a super-team. Of course this is highly, highly unlikely, since no team in the history of the NBA has ever done it. And while it might be easy to grant Dallas one last try, at home, in the most desperate and therefore most motivated of scenarios, we simply cannot commit any more money to Luka and his teammates. Unless Boston shoots 20% or less from beyond the arc, the Mavericks’ paths to victory are very few. The Celtics have more energy, more momentum, more size, and far more talent than what Dallas can offer.

One week ago many in the betting community still had faith in Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic and a Dallas squad that’s been incredibly resilient and consistent, even against some of the best teams in the West. Now we can clearly see that their perilous journey in the Western Conference playoffs is one of the main reasons why they’re so vulnerable in the championship round. As an objective handicapper, we must be able to pivot when our previous assertions go awry. At this short of a number, at the incredible value that we’re getting on the Celtics, especially considering how lopsided the series has been so far, there is just simply no other way to look.

Farley