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Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

New York over Philadelphia

1:10 PM EST. The Knicks have yet to put together a complete game against the 76ers, yet they still lead the series 2-1. Philadelphia finally got theirs in game three, led by Joel Embiid, who stacked up 50 points against his rival. It was the first game where Joel Embiid fully took over the contest, shooting 13 of 19 from the field. If that sounds like it’s not enough shots to score 50 points, you’re correct. As if the officials wanted to make up for their gaffes in game two, the reigning MVP was sent to the line 21 times in game three, hitting 19 of his free throws. In totality, the 76ers went to the charity stripe 33 times compared to New York’s 19. It was the biggest reason why Philly won the game, even though they shot better from the floor (54.7% to 48.9%) and slightly outrebounded the Knicks (36-32), too.

But everything went right for the home team in game three, which we don't expect on Sunday. Even in a loss, there was a bright spot for New York. Jalen Brunson, the Knicks’ leading scorer who’s struggled against the 76ers this season (22.5 ppg leading into last Thursday), finally had his breaking out party against his new arch-enemy, and it's probably no coincidence that it happened in the city where he played college ball. Brunson dropped 39 points, decoding the stingy defense that limited the electric point guard in two previous battles. Overall, the Knicks played well in the loss, shooting over 43% from beyond the arc and winning 3 out of quarters in the contest. The third quarter is when things went awry, a 12-minute display of fast-paced offense and 43 points put on the scoreboard by Philly. In other full-game stats, New York had more assists, notably more points in the paint (54-38) more fastbreak points (16-11), and fewer turnovers (9-11).

Now it’s the Knicks’ turn to exact vengeance in game four. Coach Tom Thibodeau criticized the officiating in game three, expressing his frustration with the disparity in calls, and other Knicks’ players are calling out Joel Embiid for a “dirty” foul on Mitchell Robinson. New York has shown its resiliency and team chemistry in moments like this all season. While oddsmakers are capitulating to the advantage of Philly playing at home and now with some momentum, we still see plenty of value in a visiting team that’s been more consistent on both sides of the court all season. As good as Philly can be, we expect a very physical battle as animosity builds between these two programs. For the price, we’ll happily wager on the Knicks, who have been fantastic in these pivotal moments all season.

Farley

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