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Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

L.A. Clippers over Dallas

3:40 PM EST. It’s hard not to be impressed by what the Mavericks have done lately. They ended the season with a top five rated defense in the final month of action, and the combination of Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic has been damn near unstoppable at certain points. Their team chemistry is also obvious and a difference-maker, as we've seen them rally and take control of this series in several key inflexion points. Game four at Dallas will be another huge challenge for a Clippers team that's struggling to maintain rhythm and chemistry on offense, but it’s also easy for bettors to be shortsighted in these circumstances.

It makes it even harder when the Clippers offense has been as ineffective as it’s been the last two games. Paul George and Russell Westbrook combined for just 10 points in game three, 9 going to George, who just made 3-11 of his shots, and his star companion went 0-7. Norman Powell ended up leading the Clippers along with James Harden, each with 21 points, but as a collective the Clippers only shot 45.7% from the floor. Even worse, they were just 10-29 from beyond the arc.

We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention Kawhi Leonard, too. The embattled star is once again fighting through a knee injury, and his absence has clearly affected the squad. LAC’s defense has certainly been good enough, limiting Dallas to just 197 points in their last two meetings, but seven shots by “the claw” in just 25 minutes of game three isn’t going to aid Ty Lue’s fledgling operation. The good news is, oddsmakers must believe that Kawhi is close to turning things around, since his point-prop line is still hanging around 20 for game four. We’re not so sure; it may be a better idea to take the under on that wager. Regardless, even if Leonard doesn’t have more of an impact, the Clippers offense is due for massive positive progression, since the standard for today’s underdog is much higher than what we’ve seen in their last two outings. LAC is rated top 10 in shooting percentage, three-point shooting percentage, and pure shooting efficiency this season, and we don't have to tell you why. From Kawhi to George to Harden to Powell and Terrence Mann and others, the Clippers' roster is full of deadly sharpshooters, especially from the perimeter, who can flip a contest in seconds. Dallas has done a good job preventing any crazy runs the last few games, but eventually the dam will break.

The Clippers have been a tough team to figure out all season. In stretches they can look like one of the elites in the NBA, flexing stingy defense and overwhelming opponents with an offense that appears to have no weakness, and then in other segments we've seen an operation that's left us scratching our heads. Either way, LAC has maintained a top position in the West all year and after two bad performances by their offense, Ty Lue's sharp mind and the urgency of game four should bring out the best in a roster full of playoff experience. Oddsmakers and talking heads are hyper-focused on the Mavericks and their proficiency lately, forgetting their own gaffes and mistaking the Clippers for another type of program. The underdogs can rise in situations like this, and we love going against the grain with our wallets when there's this much offered value.

Farley

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