Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +1 -111 BET365 +0½ -110 Sportsinteraction +0½ -105 888Sport +0½ -110

Phoenix 1Q +0½ over Minnesota

Best Odds: -105 at Sportsinteraction

7:40 PM EST. The Suns finally felt the Minnesota defense on Saturday. After breezing by the Timberwolves three times in the regular season, the Suns went up early in game one, shooting a sterling 12-22 from the field and dropping 28 points in the first quarter. Then, at the blink of an eye, the visitors found themselves down 61-47 as the first half came to a close. Minnesota's defense had shifted into a different gear, and even the Suns' hyper-inflated big-three couldn't withstand the home team's stingy resistance. Phoenix went on to shoot just 21-53 for the remainder of the contest, a 39.6% hit rate.

Think the Minnesota defense is for real? Good, you should, but that still doesn't mean we shouldn't expect better from the Suns on Tuesday. Phoenix normally shoots a full 10% better than what they showed in quarters 2-4 in game one. In fact, they're a top-5 shooting team in almost every category: three point percentage (5th), shooting efficiency (4th), field goals made per game (3rd), etc. Of course some of their regression should be credited to how stifling and pesty the Minnesota defense can be, but that still doesn't mean it should be quite that bad. Regardless, we may not see anything different in game two, at least at the final whistle. But that's why derivative bets exist.

The Suns might not win game two, but they won't have a chance if the Timberwolves take an early lead and settle into their brand of defense. That's the nightmare Phoenix found themselves in after the first quarter of game one. The Suns are typically one of the highest-scoring teams in the first period, averaging 30.1 ppg this season, and it helps that no team is worse than the Timberwolves in the same 12 minute span. Minnesota owns a league worst 33-48-2 ATS record in the first, resulting in a putrid -22.5 units this season. Maybe Minnesota loves a comeback or maybe it just takes them a second to wake up, but after winning game one there's a good chance they enter Tuesday night a little too fat and sassy. If the T-Wolves' norm is underperforming early, it could go from bad to worse quickly with an overconfident attitude, especially against the offensive prowess of the Suns' starting-five. 

The Suns are not great once they're punched in the mouth. Like Muhammad Ali, they're best when they can stick and move, overwhelming their opponent with rhythm-based offense and deadly sharpshooters. The Timberwolves are a damn good outfit with damn good defense, but no resistance can completely shut down the Suns when even two out of their three stars get hot. We like the first quarter to go over the listed total because of what we expect from the Phoenix offense, but we like the Suns to win the first quarter even more. A parlay makes sense, too. Getting a desperate visiting team at any underdog-line in the first 12 minutes is an edge we can't avoid.

Farley

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