Posted at 11:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -1 +101 BET365 -1 -110 Sportsinteraction -1 -110 888Sport -1½ +100

Indiana -1 over Milwaukee

Best Odds: +101 at Pinnacle

7:10 PM EST. The Bucks may be the higher seed, but the outlook on their opponent certainly feels stronger than what they're bringing into the postseason. Milwaukee will be without Giannis on Sunday as the Greek-freak nurses a calf injury; not exactly a bright spot for a franchise that already seems so troubled. Glen "Doc" Rivers reluctantly took over the role as Bucks' head-coach on January 26th, a fairly shocking move among NBA experts. Going from the commentator booth back to the coaching chair in less than one season wasn't a natural transition for Rivers, who seemed to be enjoying his new stint and time spent away from the stressors of leading a team. And yet Doc took it, with a frown on his face, probably because the money was good and the potential of Milwaukee's roster is high, but it certainly hasn't been without tribulation.

Since Rivers took over, the Bucks haven't been a very good team, plain and simple. Their net rating is 17th, a composite score based on an offense that ranked 18th and defense that ranked 15th during Rivers' brief 3-month reign, and their record is a mediocre 18-19 overall, the same as their record against the spread. And it's important to remember that Giannis played in 31 of those 37 games, for the most part alongside a completely healthy Bucks' roster.

Limping into the postseason without your star and with a coach that hasn't brought any positive change to your franchise is a big pill to swallow. It's even worse when you consider that Damian Lillard, the long-time Portland Trailblazer and one of the NBA's superstars for the last decade, hasn't been content with his new team. At one point in late February the controversial guard said, "I don't have much of a life in Milwaukee since the trade," adding that he misses his family and friends and the comforts he got used to after 11 seasons in the Pacific Northwest. His marks have been down all year: 24.2 ppg, just 42% from the field, and even more shocking: only 34% from beyond the arc.

What's to like about the Bucks heading into game one of their series? Not much, is the answer, which we can't state for their opponent. Indiana should not be looked at as the same team we knew in season's past. Of course Tyrese Haliburton is a bonafide offensive weapon (and NBA All-Star, we might add), and the Packers' offense has been prolific for some time. What they lacked is an interior threat and physical two-way guy who could complete their roster, a factor that prevented them from winning the NBA's first in-season tournament when they battled the Lakers in the inaugural championship game in early December.  A trade for Pascal Siakam was a phenomenal move in mid-January. Since that trade, the Pacers are the 2nd best offense in the NBA, behind only the all-powerful Celtics. Their defense has elevated their level of play, too, at times ascending to the top-10 in stretches along the last three months. Their improvement and transformation has been obvious, resulting in a surge that took Indiana out of the play-in tournament and into the postseason before their 82-game schedule ended, winners of 9 of their last 13 games.

While the Bucks must feel unsure about their position heading into the playoffs, Indiana is not. There's a reason the Pacers have become the favorite today, even in a tough road spot. Milwaukee is coached by a guy who's proven elite in the regular season but cyclically devolves in April and May. They're without Giannis, and their #2 player is struggling to fit in. Meanwhile Indiana is healthy, building confidence, and firing on all cylinders to begin their postseason play. In their last 10 games, no offense ranks higher than the Pacers, and as a team they rank 4th best overall. The visitors are just the better program right now, no matter which was you pitch it, and we won't hesitate to take advantage.

Farley

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