Phoenix @ Sacramento
Phoenix Team Total over 114½ -107 over Sacramento

Posted at 12:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle O114½ -107 BET365 O114½ -115 Sportsinteraction O114½ -115 888Sport N/A

Phoenix Team Total over 114½ over Sacramento

Best Odds: -107 at Pinnacle

10:40 PM EST. By now most of our readers know that we're not very fond of the Phoenix Suns. If we repeated every reason why in this piece, it would be beyond a broken record at this point. Look back at any of our Suns' articles this season and you'll see plenty of critiquing from yours truly, and there's plenty of evidence behind those takes. The Suns remain in the play-in tournament if the regular season ended today but they still have a chance to escape. They're only one-game behind New Orleans, who they would own a tiebreaker against. Plus, the Pelicans have no cake-walks remaining. They'll travel to San Francisco to take on the surging Warriors after an exhausting contest against the Kings in Sacramento last night, and their finale is in two days at home against a motivated LeBron James and the Lakers, who are also trying to move up in the standings. The Suns avoiding the play-in tournament is a real possibility, although some of their recent performances suggest they're not ready for the postseason.

After a sterling stretch from mid-March to early April where they won 7 out of 9 games and found themselves overcoming stiff competition like the 76ers, Nuggets, Pelicans, Cavs and Timberwolves, the Suns haven't looked the same the past week. Their offense was out-of-sync against a vengeful Pelicans' defense last Sunday, hitting just 44.8% of their shots in a loss. Then the Clippers, without Kawhi and Harden and other depth pieces, embarrassed the Suns as 9½-point underdogs at the Footprint Center. LAC was less motivated in their following affair in Los Angeles, and the Suns' offense finally woke up, overwhelming the Clippers 124-108 on Wednesday. That's the version of Phoenix we think we'll see tonight. Worry not, we still hate their lack of on-court leadership and think they'll foil quickly in the playoffs, but their opponent is in a vulnerable position in this case.

The Kings just finished an extremely physical battle at 12:30 PM EST last night against their arch-rival, the New Orleans' Pelicans. As the battle wore on Sacramento's defense broke down, letting Zion Williamson (31 points) and other Pels' sharpshooters drop 71 points in the second half. They haven't always been terrible on defense lately, but against motivated, talented offenses they can succumb quickly, and they're a relatively small roster. Top notch offenses like the Knicks and Mavericks have taken advantage of the Kings' limited defensive prowess in recent weeks,  a unit that rates 19th overall this season. Friday night, less than 24 hours after their last war, a struggling Kings' squad will need to limit the Suns' big-3 to have a shot at winning, and unfortunately they just don't match up well. A healthy Suns' roster dropped 249 points in their last two contests versus Sacramento, averaging 50% from the field over the course of 8 quarters. 

If the Suns were coasting or due for regression, we might look off this bet. Besides, we love to fade a shaky Frank Vogel and a team that's so top heavy it often falls flat on its face.That being said, as much as we don't like to admit it, the Suns' big-3 is as talented as any trio in the NBA and in games like this, where there's something to accomplish and they're catching an average defense in a bad spot, the Suns have blown up the scoreboard all season. Despite my criticisms, the Phoenix offense is a top 8 unit and they're a top-10 net rated team after 6 months of competition. Better squads will humble Phoenix in a few weeks, but we expect a scoring display from a group that averages nearly 2 points over tonight's number.

Farley

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Our Pick

Phoenix Team Total over 114½ -107 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)

New York/Philadelphia under 202 -110