Posted at 12:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle O61½ -118 BET365 O62½ -110 Sportsinteraction O62½ +105

Atlanta 1H Team Total over 62½

Best Odds: +105 at Sportsinteraction

7:00 PM EST. At this point, the identity of the Atlanta Hawks is no mystery. There’s a reason the Hawks have been one of the best “over” teams in the association this season, and there’s really no argument to suggest that’s changing. Atlanta has routinely been a top-5 offense while maintaining a bottom-5 defense for nearly all 4 months of their schedule thus far, a recipe that clearly hasn’t always brought the best results in the win/loss department. In front of their own fans, we can count on high totals even more, covering 64.3% (18-10) ATS to the over at State Farm Arena and 65% ATS (13-7) as a home favorite. At 121.3 points per game as their average, only two other teams are better (Indiana and Milwaukee). And unlike their foe, they didn’t play last night. A well-rested Hawks roster is a nightmare for any defense, but especially for one that’s struggled as much as Toronto.

We’re confident that Darko Rajakovi? will eventually turn the Raptors into a winning program. His accolades abroad are well-documented, and the Serbian is spoken of highly by players and other NBA coaches. The Raptors just aren’t quite there yet. Last night was a stellar performance by Toronto, perhaps one of their better all-around games of the season, dominating the Nets for a 28-point win at home. To our point, when Darko is given time with his team, improvements will likely come. At the same time, great performances and particularly great defense hasn’t exactly been their norm. Toronto’s defense has been either average or very poor since the first tipoff in late October. Since January 1, they rank 27^th. On average, they allow 57.5 ppg in the first half to their opponents, ranking 16th.

In short, this is a fantastic regression spot for the visiting team. Negative regression, that is. The Raptors utilized nearly all their roster last night. Starters Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr., and Immanuel Quickley all played over 30 minutes. The Hawks, who are completely healthy besides backup center Onyeka Okongwu, have had the fortune of game-planning and waiting for their enemy to head down south. And they’re off a full 9 days of rest.  We don’t trust the full game over or even the Hawks full game team total to go over since there’s a chance this is a blowout and eventually it could slow down. We also don’t trust the Hawks to cover, since they’re the NBA’s worst team ATS (17-38, 30.9%). What we do trust is that the Hawks will come out on fire in their first game back. Atlanta averages 61.4 ppg in the first half; at least another 2 points can be expected, considering the circumstances.

Farley

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