Charlotte @ Golden State
Charlotte +13 -110 over Golden State

Posted at 12:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +13 -110 BET365 +13 -110 Sportsinteraction +12½ -105 888Sport +13½ -116

Charlotte +13 over Golden State

Best Odds: -110 at Pinnacle and BET365

10:00 PM EST. The NBA market keeps getting the Hornets wrong. Regardless of what other analysts may think, and we all know many people think many things in the oversaturated industry of sports betting, the Hornets got better after their recent trade. Charlotte traded underperformer P.J. Washington to the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for two veterans, Grant Williams, and Seth Curry. They also sent Gordon Hayward to the Thunder for upstart guard Tre Mann and other depth pieces. Like him or hate him, Charlotte landing Grant Williams, a guy who played for an elite roster in Boston and has become known for his physical style of play, is a big deal. Williams, Mann, and Curry all provide veteran savvy and experience, but Williams is a perfectly complimentary piece for a young Hornets’ roster that needs more on-court leadership. Williams is underrated by NBA markets, partially because he reportedly “rubbed guys the wrong way” in his short tenure with Dallas, but that’s the kind of moxie the Hornets need. And we’ve already seen an effect.

These are the Hornets’ spreads and results in their last 4, aka since the trade:

5½-point underdogs vs. Memphis, won by 9
10-point underdogs vs. Indiana, won by 9
7-point underdogs vs. Atlanta, won by 23
9½-point underdogs at Utah last night, won by 8

Of course, all things eventually regress to the mean, and the Hornets probably aren’t quite as good as their recent showings, but in this case oddsmakers are starting to look downright foolish. In their last four contests, Charlotte has crushed the spread by an average margin of 20.25 points per game. That’s rather eye-popping, don’t you think? We also must consider their opponent tonight.

This is about as obvious as it gets for what bettors like to call a “let-down spot” for the home team Warriors. Last night the surging Warriors, who have won 9 of their last 11 games, beat up on their Pacific Division rival, the L.A. Lakers. No doubt they took advantage of a Lebron-less visiting team, but Golden State has leveled up since their assistant coach passed away, looking more and more like a real contender in the West. Draymond Green has been under control, Steph Curry has been sensational, Klay Thompson is playing with fire coming off the bench, and other role-players have stepped up in major ways.

But this spread is still extremely inflated. Believe it or not, the Hornets are a top 5 defense since the trade. They also rank 5th overall in net rating (an offense + defense composite metric). The roster-change has come at a good time for Miles Bridges, who was recently exonerated from a few criminal charges. Without LaMelo Ball he’s clearly the team’s main scorer and he’s taken that role seriously. Last night he finished with a double-double, and he’s averaged 27 ppg in his last 8 starts. Both teams are on the second leg of a back-to-back tonight, but only Golden State has a big lookahead game (Denver on Sunday). This is a let-down and sandwich spot against a feisty program that’s feeling itself right now. We can’t not take Charlotte.

Farley

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Our Pick

Charlotte +13 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Golden State -2½ -104 over Sacramento