Phoenix @ Golden State
Golden State +116 over Phoenix

Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +116 BET365 +110 Sportsinteraction +110  888Sport +105

Golden State over Phoenix

Best Odds: +116 at Pinnacle 

8:30 PM EST. Here come the Warriors? Don't look now, but Golden State might be finally accessing their championship DNA. We don't think it's a coincidence that since beloved assistant coach Dejan Milojevi passed away, the Warriors are 6-3. And if you examine those losses, every one of them could have been another W. They lost by 1-point to the Kings in late January, even though they outshot their opponent that evening, and their other two losses came in overtime against the surging Lakers and the offensively gifted Hawks. In any case, in the last 9 games Golden State profiles as one of the best teams in the entire league: they're 4th in offensive efficiency, 6th in defensive efficiency, and 3rd in net rating. 

Steph Curry has soared during their recent renaissance, averaging 33.4 ppg and on one night dropping 60 on Atlanta. Klay Thompson, Jonathon Kuminga, Andrew Wiggins, and others have stepped up as solid supporting cast members, as if woken from a deep sleep. None of those guys were thriving before January. The return of Draymond Green brings an energetic presence and key cog in their effectiveness on both sides of the court, too. Don't look now, but the Warriors may be ready to go on a run. Five of their next seven games will be at the Chase Center. 

And apparently the markets aren't noticing. On Thursday night Golden State was as high as a 6.5-point underdog against the newly reorganized Pacers, a team that's looked as volatile as any the last few weeks since star guard Tyrese Haliburton incurred a hamstring injury. The oddsmakers' poor valuation has resulted in Golden State covering 5 out of their last 6 games. 

On the other end, this bet isn't about fading the Suns, but there's evidence to suggest that their luck may run out very soon. Phoenix has been shooting astronomically well since the start of January, eclipsing even the Clippers in true shooting and effective field goal percentages in that span, and the return of Bradley Beal has mostly been a positive. Beal had some big games recently, including a 43-point explosion against his former outfit and a 30-point display when he and Durant were without Devin Booker on Thursday night. Their defense is up and down, but their offense has been consistent.

The issue they often run into is their second-unit, and their starting 5 must be taxed at this point of the season. Just look at their last game at home against Utah, where their 5 main dudes played for 73% of the contest. Since the start of January, their bench ranks 26th in offense. Say what you want about Steve Kerr and his obsession with integrating the Warriors' second and third units, but it's worked. They're a top 10 offense in the same span. One other factor to note - Suns' star guard Devin Booker sat out Thursday night and he continues to deal with an aggravated hip. If he sits out again, that's a major downgrade for a Suns' team that will need Beal and Durant to be damn-near perfect to win in a hostile environment.

Golden State has been one of the best ATS dogs all season (13-6-1), despite many of their setbacks. They've also lost three straight times to Phoenix, although they've all been close (average margin of victory: 5 points). This contest will mean more to Golden State, and let's face it - the hyped up Suns are due for at least some regression, and while markets usually love inflate their potential, tonight's short line is revealing. We're on a feisty and motivated home pooch.



Our Pick

Golden State +116 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.32)

Atlanta 1H Team Total over 62½ +105
Charlotte +13 -110 over Golden State