Posted at 3:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +144 BET365 +125 Sportsinteraction +135 888Sport +130

Sacramento over Cleveland

Best Odds: +144 at Pinnacle

7:10 PM EST. You might already think we're crazy for betting against the Cavaliers and who are we to say you shouldn't? The Cavs have been one of the best programs in the NBA for a good month-plus. They're 13-1 since January 3rd and they've won five games in a row, right there with the Knicks as the hottest team in the association. They've had some really impressive wins in there too, like beating Milwaukee twice and conquering the mighty Clippers at the end of January to seal a magnificent month. Over their last 14 games they're the #1 defense in pro basketball, and the return of Evan Mobley and Darius Garland has only escalated their offensive efficiency as of late. 

Okay, here comes the "but." If we step back and consider how "legitimate" the Cavaliers' recent dominance has been, there's only one proverbial asterisk we have to mention- 8 of their last 14 games have come against bottom-10 offenses, and they played the Bucks, clearly a top 10 offense, three times in that span. Now winning for as long and as impressively as they have for over a month is nothing to ignore. The Cavaliers are a really good team with some excellent defense, and when healthy they can score with anyone. 

The issue is that their opponent tonight is also playing at a very high level lately, having won 7 of their last 8 games, and they're the type of offense that can completely flip what the Cavs do best. Cleveland likes to run the floor at a methodical pace and they rely on proficient two-point scoring - they're 6th overall (56.5%) inside the perimeter. But they're not very good at shooting threes. The Cavs rank at a lowly 22nd (35.7%) from beyond the arc. 

The Kings are much better. Sacramento ranks 12th in three-point efficiency (37%), and they attempt over 40 three-pointers per game (3rd overall). The bad news for Cleveland? They make 15 of them, which is a top 4 mark. If the Kings get in-rhythm, as they have so many times before, the Cavs can be in real trouble. Back in mid-November, Sacramento shot 59% from the floor and 47.6% from beyond the arc and beat Cleveland 132-120 in California. Now we're pretty sure the home-team defense won't allow that kind of efficiency this time, but needless to say - the Kings aren't scared of their matchups tonight. Oh by the way, the Cavs shot 50% from the floor and 45.7% from the perimeter in their first battle, and it didn't matter.

Even more interesting for this game, the Kings are a top-5 defense in their last 5 games. The spread on this contest has been moving down all day, as it should, because these two teams are more even than disparate. No one can discount what the Cavs have done lately, but there's inherent value on a very feisty dog.

Farley

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