Sacramento @ Miami
Sacramento +1½ -105 over Miami

Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +1½ -105 BET365 +1½ -110 Sportsinteraction +1½ -110 888Sport +1½ -118

Sacramento +1½ over Miami

Best Odds: -105 at Pinnacle

7:40 PM EST. The Miami Heat tend to do the same thing every year. During regular season play, they can be volatile; so volatile that it leaves many pundits to wonder how good of a coach Erik Spoelstra really is. Has he lost the team? Is their less-talented roster finally down and out, and is Jimmy Butler going to move on? All the same curious narratives are surfacing like they do at some point every season for tonight's home team. And then, when the playoffs start, they're suddenly in championship form. They're gritty, efficient, and their rotations are damn-near perfect for the opponents they face.

But this isn't the playoffs just yet. Right now the Miami Heat aren't giving anyone reasons to believe in them. For starters, although they're in the top 10 in three-point frequency, they can't hit a shot beyond the arc to save their lives the last two weeks. Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, and the rest of the gang have struggled to find anything consistent offensively, probably the biggest reason why they've lost 7 straight. Their offense is rated dead-last during the same span.

That's not good when you're about to face the Sacramento Kings. The market is taking a position on Miami, still listing the Heat as the hometown favorite, but we can't agree with that sentiment. The Kings are performing above-expectations again this year. After surging in their 2022-23 campaign and gaining the #3 seed in the West, they're currently 5th in their conference and projected to go over their full-season win total. Tha'ts impressive, especially considering the fact that no program is overlooking Sacramento any longer. Even better for our wager tonight, few teams shoot the 2-pointer better than the Kings. They've averaged 56.6% from inside the perimeter all season, and the last two weeks they're well-above 60% in the same category.

The Heat are often too dependent on the long-ball and it hasn't helped them recently. The inclusion of Butler back in the lineup hasn't helped either. New fan-favorite Jaime Jaquez, who took Miami by storm in the first two months of the season, hasn't been playing as much with Butler back and looks out of sorts. That's had a negative effect on their team chemistry and in turn, on their production. The Kings are not the team to face if that's Miami's current form, and we're here to capitalize.

Farley

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Our Pick

Sacramento +1½ -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)

Atlanta 1H Team Total over 62½ +105
Charlotte +13 -110 over Golden State