Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Sacramento +4 over Phoenix
Best Odds: -110 at BET365
9:00 PM EST. The Kings are already 2-0 against the Suns this season, so you'll see many bettors automatically placing wagers on Phoenix at home tonight in what they assume is a lovely setup for revenge. We're here to tell you that's a very flawed thought process. Of course part of their support of the home-team is hinged on the return of Bradley Beal, and now all three of the Suns' stars are healthy and ready to rock for the first stretch this season. Devin Booker was the only member of the "big-3" in their first affair, and it was Kevin Durant and Booker in their second loss.
One of the biggest problems with Phoenix this season is their depth. Stalwart members of their perennial playoff teams of the past included clutch players from their second unit. Their current roster is all about their starting five. Just take their last contest, where Phoenix was forced to play their starters for 174 minutes of game-time in a win where they struggled to stay ahead of one of the NBA's worst programs, the Portland Trailblazers. Their bench only played 65 combined minutes, 24 of those going to veteran Eric Gordon.
The Kings cannot relate. Sacramento has one of the most dynamic benches in the association, ranking top 10 in offensive efficiency and top 5 in assist ratio for all three months of the season. Like their starters, the Kings' second unit can completely overwhelm and turn the tide of a game upside down if their opponent can't answer with the same production. That's what we saw in their first two matchups, too. Sacramento's fast pace and consistency on offense put pressure on the Suns' starting five. Phoenix is not equipped to handle that pressure, at least not yet, since their "big 3" has only played in 8 games together this season.
And it's not like they've shown us they can play elite basketball since Beal returned, either. They beat Portland twice in January, yawn, they recently beat the struggling Lakers, yawn x 2, but they couldn't outlast the Grizzlies at home and they got smoked by the Clippers in a 27-point loss just last week. Both of those recent losses featured their "big 3." Sacramento is coming off a 1-point OT loss to the Bucks where they rested the majority of their bench, but it was one of their most impressive offensive performances of the season. We're confident they have the Suns' number, and this is another great opportunity for the Kings to overwhelm a home team that is far from the chemistry and efficiency they've displayed the last two seasons.
Sacramento +4 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)