Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Indiana +11½ -104 over Boston
7:40 PM EST. We suggest you take this bet at Pinnacle, which gives us a much better price for a wager we love. The early NBA season presents a marketplace that's often way off the mark. In layman's terms, we've won more bets and plenty more money going against line movement and market signals, especially from October through December, and we encourage you to do the same. Don't blindly trust that lines and totals and where a spread moves throughout the day should warrant any semblance of confidence. Like the sports betting community, oddsmakers are also adjusting their perspectives on these NBA teams, many of which have totally different rosters, and it takes some time for those lines to sharpen. If anything, you're better off looking at contrarian angles, and this is another great example tonight.
The market has the Celtics as full 11+ point favorites at home against the Pacers tonight, and a big part of that is because Tyrese Haliburton is questionable to play. In three games, the All-Star guard already has 37 assists. He also leads his team in points (20 ppg), but the Pacers have plenty of surrounding talent to make up for it. Myles Turner, Benedict Mathurin (who's also questionable), new transfer Bruce Brown and Aaron Nesmith highlight a small-ball lineup that likes to run fast and overwhelm opponents with an aggressive and high-scoring style. Only the Dallas Mavericks have a better offensive rating through a week of NBA action. Indiana also has backup point guard TJ McConnell, who's used to serving in place of Haliburton and has performed well in these situations before.
And then there's their opponent, the Boston Celtics. The C's are 3-0, blah blah, and we're all very excited, blah blah, and clearly their offense is a crew to be reckoned with. Their starting five in particular, which has scored 307 of their 353 points so far (87%), has been particularly potent. We're concerned over Boston's depth, though, and this qualifies as a game they might not care much about. We've seen the Celtics flop in "easy spots" before, and they have a wild 3-game road trip on deck where they bounce back and forth from east coast to west coast. This would be an easy game to overlook or perhaps work on their rotations, especially if Haliburton ends up sitting.
Indiana has a bench with more unity and experience playing together, and if Boston decides to rest some of their stars and play more of their second-unit, this becomes a game the Pacers can win straight up. The spread is way too high considering those circumstances. Boston should be a huge favorite against teams like Houston or San Antonio or Portland, sure, but not a Pacers' squad that can out-run defenses and blow up a scoreboard.
Indiana +11½ -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)