Posted at 1:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -3 -105 BET365 -3 -110 Sportsinteraction -3 -110 888Sport -3 -110

Denver -3 -105 over Miami

8:30 PM EST. The Nuggets' defensive strategy is pretty simple through the first two games of this NBA Finals. Give up nothing inside and let the Heat shoot low-percentage shots at will. In Game 1, it worked well as Miami was cold from the field, and Denver was able to build up a big lead. The Nuggets were up by 19 going into the fourth before taking their foot off the gas and coasting to a 104-93 win.

Game 2 was a different story, as the Heat regained the scoring touch that has guided them to the Finals as a Play-In team. Miami shot the freaking lights out in Denver on Sunday night, going 49% (38-of-78) from the field and 49% (17-of-35) from downtown. Full credit to the Heat for going on the road and winning a game by taking everything that was given to them and cashing those opportunities.

We are not in the "predicting games" business, so we are forced to look at where the true value lies in Game 3. In Round 1, Miami was a +7½-point underdog in Game 4 against the Bucks at full strength. Why does that matter? Well, because we can compare that number to what the Heat were priced at against the Bucks in Game 3 of that series without Giannis Antetokounmpo, which was just +2. We can't help but notice that the second number is much closer to what Miami is taking back tonight against the Nuggets. While all things are not equal, we doubt that the Bucks and Nuggets would be a coin flip on any court on this planet if Giannis was not playing. If the Heat are hot, we'll rip up this ticket; however, if Miami goes cold as it did in Game 1, it is going to get whooped again.

Finnie

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