NBA Playoffs - Game 4
Golden State +130 over Los Angeles

Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +124 BET365 +130 Sportsinteraction +125 888Sport +125

Golden State +130 over Los Angeles

10:00 PM EST. The Warriors live and die by the 3-point shot. When it is falling, they are going to succeed, as they did in a Game 2 romp in San Francisco. When it is not, they are going to struggle, as they did in Game 3 in Los Angeles on Saturday night, where Golden State lost 127-97. Klay Thompson had only 15 points and struggled from beyond the arc, shooting just 3-of-9 on 3-point attempts. In Game 3, the Dubs shot just 29.5 percent from downtown, compared to their 44.2% in the first two games of the series.

As for Los Angeles, one noticeable difference in Game 3 was the disparity in free-throw attempts between the Lakers and the Warriors. The Lakers shot 25-of-29 (86.2%) from the free-throw line, while the Warriors shot just 9-of-12 (75%). The Lakers' ability to get to the free-throw line in the second quarter was key, with nine fouls called against the Warriors in the second frame, the Lakers went 11 of 15 from the line, while the Warriors only attempted one free-throw.

We cannot predict if the Warriors will find their scoring touch or if the officials are going to take over the game. We call those situations “in-game variance,” those situations that nobody can predict. It’s why when you read or hear those that analyze games use words like “I think” or “I feel,” you should run for the hills. It matters not what we “think” or “feel.” Take this line from an unnamed handicapper, “The Warriors have been a poor road team all season, and I think it costs them here.”

Everyone knows the Warriors have struggled on the road this year. That information is not privileged, yet oddsmakers still made the Dubs a small underdog here. If the Lakers feast and win easily again, it’s going to be a bad night for the sportsbooks, who have all the data and know where the action is going to lean. Do you think they offered up the Lakers here at a small price by accident? We don’t. Keep the points, we are backing the Warriors for the win.

Finnie

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Our Pick

Golden State +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)

Dallas/Boston under 211 -110
Dallas +6½ -102 over Boston