NBA Playoffs - Game 1
Denver/Phoenix u227 -106 over

Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle u227 -106 BET365 u227½ -110 Sportsinteraction u227 -110 888Sport u227 -110

Denver/Phoenix u227 -106

8:35 PM EST. The Suns and Nuggets are set to tip-off for Game 1 of their Western Conference semi-finals in Denver tonight, which has us looking hard at the posted total of 227, as both teams bring big name talent, and potent offenses into this series, which sets this play up well. The playoffs are a different beast, and as they roll on, there is an increase in intensity, and more attention being paid to the defensive end of the court.

Coming into tonight, the hometown Nuggets have gone over in three of their last four, with the only blemish on that record being a push on 222 last Sunday night in Minnesota. The oddsmakers posted totals of 221½, 223, and 222 (twice) in those four games, yet they posted a bigger number today. The Suns may have something to do with that, as they have gone over in six of their last eight games, which includes going over by 40½ on a total of 225½ in Game 5 versus the Clippers and going over by 28 on a total of 225 in Game 3.

If those recent results weren't enough to influence an unsuspecting market that loves points in bunches, the significance of Game 1 cannot be ignored here. Both of these teams are going to want to get off on the right foot, which means not forcing shots or playing fast and loose. The Suns are not playing the undermanned Clippers, and the Nuggets are not playing the Play-In Timberwolves. Both of these teams are considered to be elite, which creates a heightened sense of caution and the desire to dictate the defensive tone. An emphasis on defensive execution and intensity typically leads to a tighter game and a lower-scoring affair. We're going to put that hypothesis to the test here.

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Our Pick

Denver/Phoenix u227 -106 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.08)

Dallas/Boston under 211 -110
Dallas +6½ -102 over Boston