Posted at 4:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle +7½ +100  BET365  +7½ -110 Sportsinteraction +7½ -110 888Sport +7½ -110

Boston +7½ over Cleveland

7:10 PM EST. The Cavaliers have very little to do with this play, but Cleveland presents as the perfect opponent to take advantage of, as the Cavs' stock is on the uptick after having made three straight trips to the pay window, including cashing a ticket against the Celtics just five days ago.

You will read a laundry list of reasons to fade the Celtics today, so we’ll get a few of them out of the way. Boston has failed to cover in four straight games, including last night’s 131-129 overtime thriller against the Knicks, which saw the C’s lose outright as an 8½-point favorite. Prior to losing to the Knicks, Boston lost outright at home to Brooklyn as 10-point chalk. The C’s won but did not cover against the Cavaliers, and they lost again to the Knicks at MSG. The media and the market love a winner over all else, so recency bias looms large here.

If all that wasn’t enough, the Celtics will sit both Jayson Tatum and Al Horford in Cleveland tonight, which has to lead to the “injury chasers” coming out of the woodwork to try and take advantage of that situation. However, that would be the wrong move. Whenever there is one or more star players or starters out of the lineup, there will be an overreaction to that player’s absence.

When we see an injury, we also see an opportunity, but that is the opportunity to take back inflated points with the team that is going to be missing their guys. It’s not like the Celtics are a team that only runs four or five deep. They are a championship contender. You don’t think those players on the bench aren’t chomping at the bit to get some more playing time. Moreover, it’s not like the C’s were playing well with Tatum back in the lineup. If he’s not at 100%, Boston might be in a better position to cover these inflated points without their star tonight.

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