Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 4:15 PM EST odds are subject to change.
Sacramento +6½ over Miami
7:40 PM EST. First off, Sac beat Miami in Sacramento on Saturday night so the revenge seekers are out in full force, as are the injury chasers. You see, the Kings' Aaron Fox is out due to a knee injury suffered last game, which means, PG Davion Mitchell will make his first start of the season here. We’re fine with that but the injury chasers are not. Kings coach Mike Brown turned to Mitchell when Fox went down with the injury in Monday’s win over the Hornets. Mitchell responded with a season-high 23 points on 9-of-11 shooting.
You may have read or heard that Miami’s Tyler Herro suffered an eye injury yesterday and did not return but Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said Herro’s eye contusion looked better following the game. Herro’s status for tonight is listed as questionable but we’re pretty sure he’s playing because he was not listed on the Heat’s injury report Wednesday. Once that is well known, the price may go up but it surely won’t come down so waiting just before tip-off to make this wager comes recommended.
Situationally is where we are going to trust that the Kings have a big edge here. Miami played Golden State last night after returning home from a three-game trip to the West that included stops in Portland, Golden State and Sacramento. The Heat have played the Warriors twice over the past six days and got their revenge last night after losing the game by 13 at the Chase Center. This is also Miami’s fourth game in six nights, third game in four days and tail-end of back-to-backs after defeating the Warriors yesterday. It’s the perfect spot for the Kings to catch the Heat napping. Top recap, we have injury chasers, revenge chasers and a great situational spot for the Kings.
Yesterday we received a message that read as follows after we posted Chicago to beat Brooklyn:
“I have to disagree with your pick tonight, I think Durant and Kyrie will be extra motivated to do well after they got Nash fired and do enough just to cover -1.5 pts. We will see but I already got my money on Brooklyn-1.5 few mins ago”.
The result of that game matters not, as it could have gone either way but what stood out to us is when the author said, “I think Durant and Kyrie will be extra motivated to do well after they got Nash fired”.
We have covered this before and will cover it again here. You never hear us use the phrases “think or feel”. We cannot count the 1000’s of picks we have read that end with phrases like, “I just feel like the Nets will show up tonight”. Or, “I think Ja Morant will have a massive game”.
That’s predicting something. That’s the approach that will ruin your bankroll. Nobody can predict games. Look for value. If you want to discuss your thoughts and feelings, call your mother. Look for value. In this case, the books have overvalued Miami after a win last night and because the Kings are without a key player. That means they had to overcompensate and we’re the beneficiaries of that. It doesn’t mean that Sacramento will cover but once we have made our wagers and the game starts, it is out of our control. We cannot predict who will be hot, which team is ready, who is hitting more three’s or anything else. We must dig to find value and leave what we think or feel out of the equation.
Sacramento +6½ -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)