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Posted at 12:00 AM EST (Friday). Odds subject to change.

UFC 304

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Wager: Nathaniel Wood by TKO/KO (+145 at SportsInteraction)

9:30 PM EST. Nathaniel Wood had a very unfortunate loss nine months ago, for more reasons than one. The 30-year-old was climbing the ranks of featherweight, coming off three impressive wins against Charles Rosa, Charles Jourdain and Andre Fili. Looking to build even more momentum, Wood battled Muhammadjon Naimov last October and almost everything that could go wrong did. At the start of the fight, Naimov landed a fierce hook, dropping Wood to the canvas almost immediately in the first minute of the bout. Wood is known for his resilience and wasn’t on the ground for long, grappling and ultimately regaining control of the octagon. Then, in each of the first 2 rounds, Wood got hit with not one but two low-blows, crippling the Brit for long pauses and stifling any rhythm he had gained. It was an uphill climb for “the Prospect” for the entire fight, and eventually Naimov won by unanimous decision. It should be noted that Wood was seconds away from knocking out Naimov in the final minute of the fight; he just ran out of time.

On Saturday, Wood will get the opportunity to exact vengeance and regain the momentum he had going into last October, and he’ll do it against an opponent that might not see many more days in the octagon. Daniel Pineda is a stalwart of MMA, joining Dana White’s company back in 2012 and switching back-and-forth between different promotions along a 43-fight career. The Texan has seen it all, there’s no doubt about that, but his form has been anything but stellar for a long time. Multiple no contests in the Professional Fighters League and in the UFC in 2019 became a stain on his reputation, the result of the now 38-year-old testing positive for increased levels of testosterone. Upon returning to the promotion in 2020, Pineda got a nice win against Herbert Burns but then followed it up with a loss to Cub Swanson. Most recently he lost to Alex Caceres.

The reality is, Pineda has been a happy customer just being a part of the UFC, as he’s clearly communicated on many occasions. "The Pit" Pineda just loves to fight, and he certainly knows that any shots at a title or supreme popularity are beyond his reach at this point. The same cannot be said for Nathaniel Wood. He calls himself ”The Prospect” for a reason, and at 30 years old he still believes he can become one of the best. His last loss was a kink in the armor, but it was also an outlier. We like Wood to engage with Pineda early and often, something we know his opponent will gladly reciprocate. The quicker and more powerful Wood should end the battle decisively. 

Farley

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Posted at 12:00 AM EST (Friday). Odds subject to change.

UFC 304

PPV on ESPN+

Wager: Giga Chikadze (+185 at Pinnacle & SportsInteraction)

10:15 PM EST. Giga Chikadze stormed onto the UFC's featherweight scene when he joined the promotion 5 years ago. Now 35-years old, the elite kickboxer mowed through his first 7 opponents, showing off his explosive and lightning quick striking against formidable names like Edson Barbosa, Cub Swanson, and most recently Alex Caceres. Even in his only UFC loss, a unanimous decision defeat at the hands of Calvin Kattar, one of the division's top-weight contenders, Chikadze showed off faster and more dynamic striking throughout the bout. Kattar's endurance and high-level wrestling ability ended up being the difference, but it wasn't a bad look for the Georgian. If anything, Chikadze needed the humbling to modify parts of his style, since he never faced a guy like Kattar prior. His improvement showed in his next win against Caceres, a rangey and crafty attacker who's rarely outperformed on the feet. Gigadze left no doubt, displaying a more technical approach and methodical style in an unanimous decision victory.

Arnold Allen's career hasn't been as inspiring. Entering the UFC when he was just 21 years old, the "Almighty's" slow-moving (and often boring) style granted him just one fight per year on average. He did what he was supposed to do, climbing the ranks and riding a 12-fight win-streak at one point. Eventually he earned some high-quality wins over Dan Hooker and Calvin Kattar, although the latter ended in the second round thanks to a knee injury to Kattar. In recent history, Allen found himself on the losing end in his last two affairs, failing by unanimous decision to Max Holloway (no shame in that), followed by Mosvar Evleov (there's a little shame in that, since Evleov is attempting to make the same ascension as Allen). 

In recent bouts, Allen has shown more aggression and moxie, likely recognizing the need to amplify his style to at least attempt a shot at stardom. That decision has obviously come with mixed results. Giga Chikadze will not relent when he's in the octagon, and while Allen proved many times that he has good durability, "Ninja" Chikadze's striking is different. His snap-kicks are brutal when they land, his leg-kicks are constant and precise, and one clean punch will be enough to knock Allen off his guard. Of course, Allen packs a powerful punch, too, but we just don't see as many avenues for the Brit to find success. If this goes to a decision, Giga's activity and highlight-reel power should win the hearts of the judges, even in hostile territory. The value solely lies on the side of the underdog; anyone with a brain could make a case that this should be much closer to even. Yet, because it's England, these odds will likely only rise. Might want to wait and fire right before the first bell.

Farley

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Posted at 12:00 AM EST (Friday). Odds subject to change.

UFC 304

PPV on ESPN+

Wager: Leon Edwards by TKO/KO (+275 at Pinnacle & SportsInteraction)

12:15 AM EST. In the wee hours of Sunday morning in Manchester, England, hometown hero Leon "Rocky" Edwards will look to defend his belt for the third time. His opponent, Belal "Remember the Name" Muhammad, is an extremely formidable contender. The 36-year old from Chicago, Illinois finally gets his shot at UFC gold, an opportunity he's long deserved. Muhammad is riding a 9-bout winning streak heading into Saturday night, a rare mark for any UFC fighter, and he's become known for wearing down his opponents, closing distance and showing little to no fear of his enemy's prowess. For the most part it's worked - he's only lost 3 fights over a 12-year professional career - but it's Belal's confidence that could make him extremely vulnerable against a champion like Leon Edwards. Belal will be noted as the better grappler, but Edwards is extremely overrated in takedown and grappling defense.

Leon Edwards is a champion's champion. The dude earned the belt after KO head-kicking one of the great UFC champions in history. Following that win, he humbly accepted a rematch against Usman and pieced him up for 5 rounds. Muhammad beat up on more than a few notable names in the UFC, guys like Gilbert Burns, Sean Brady, Vincent Luque, and Stephen Thompson, but it does not compare to Edwards. Rocky enters Saturday with a 12-fight win streak that saw him out-boxing and conquering some of the biggest names in MMA, top-tier martial artists like Colby Covington, Nate Diaz, Rafael dos Anjos, Gunnar Nelson, and Donald Cerrone (in 2018, aka Cowboy's prime). No victory was more impressive than his domination of Colby Covington. The loud-mouth American is known for his incredible gas-tank and high-volume striking, a style that mirrors Belal's in many ways, but Leon out-classed him in every category. 

Normally we look to fade any team or athlete that's getting too much hype, but that's not the case in this matchup. Individual sports demand a different kind of handicapping, and in this instance oddsmakers are not giving Edwards enough credit. He calls himself Rocky out of his love for the character, but his boxing lives up to the hype, packing two dynamic, powerful weapons that might be the best striking combo in all of the UFC. He's also smooth defensively and technically precise. The one asterisk on both fighter's resume is the "no-contest '' that occured between the two in 2021; an accidental eye-poke by Edwards ended the bout. But it's important to remember - Leon looked bigger, fully resisted Muhamma's wrestling, and he landed 11 more significant strikes in the first round. Muhammad is levels above most welterweights, but he is not above Edwards. We'll bet against Belal's overconfidence to ultimately result in disaster.

Farley

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