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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Milwaukee -107 over San Diego

10:00 PM EST. Milwaukee missed its first opportunity to finish this series last night. We'll come right back with the Brewers tonight. San Diego survived Game 3, but let's not confuse survival with some dramatic change in the series. The Padres won 3-2, and their offense still didn't exactly come roaring to life. They've had trouble generating sustained offense throughout this series, and now they're being asked to do it again with their season on the line.

The bigger story tonight may be what San Diego has left behind Walker Buehler. Mason Miller is away from the team on family leave and his status for tonight is uncertain, while Adrian Morejon is dealing with shoulder tightness. Those are two enormous pieces at the back of the San Diego bullpen. The Padres were forced to get creative last night, using starter Michael King for the final two innings to protect a one-run lead. That's great when it works, but it's hardly the bullpen configuration San Diego drew up for October.

Buehler isn't the pitcher he was during his best years with the Dodgers, either. He finished with a 4.63 ERA and now relies on mixing a bunch of pitches rather than overwhelming hitters. He can still give San Diego a good outing, but we're not interested in treating him like some major advantage simply because Robert Gasser is starting for Milwaukee.

Gasser isn't somebody we're looking to endorse, either. His 3.87 ERA looks considerably better than some of the underlying numbers, and San Diego can load its lineup with right-handed bats against him. That's legitimate.

The difference is that Milwaukee doesn't need Gasser to pitch deep into this game.

The Brewers have one of the deepest bullpens remaining in the postseason, and that group has allowed one earned run in 14 playoff innings. Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby and JoJo Romero give Pat Murphy multiple ways to navigate the middle and late innings. If Gasser gets into trouble, there's no reason to wait around hoping he figures it out. This is a closeout game. Everybody is available.

Milwaukee also has a substantial defensive advantage that plays particularly well behind Gasser. He's a left-handed fly-ball pitcher, and the Brewers had the second-best outfield defense in baseball during the regular season. Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick give Milwaukee an athletic defensive group that can turn balls in play into outs.

More importantly, we're not going to overreact to one game.

Milwaukee won the first two games of this series for a reason. The Brewers have received outstanding pitching, they've pressured San Diego on the bases and they've consistently created opportunities offensively. Last night they left 11 runners on base. That's frustrating, but we'd much rather come back with a team that created opportunities and failed to cash them than assume those opportunities suddenly disappear.

And here's where the price becomes interesting. Despite San Diego being at home, despite Milwaukee starting Gasser and despite the Padres supposedly having momentum after keeping their season alive, we're being asked to lay only -107 with Milwaukee. The projection supplied for this game gives the Brewers a 50.9% chance of winning, essentially making the matchup a coin flip before accounting for what San Diego may or may not have available in the bullpen.

Closeout games are difficult. Milwaukee found that out last night.

They get another crack tonight, and this time San Diego's pitching staff may be considerably more compromised.

Milwaukee -107

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