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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cleveland -1½ +185 over Boston

7:10 PM EST. Foster Griffin (LHP- CLE, 3.67 ERA) takes the ball against Sonny Gray (RHP- BOS, 2.82 ERA), and this is a much more interesting matchup than the ERA column suggests. Griffin has posted an 8.15 K/9 with a 2.43 BB/9 and a 1.19 WHIP across his current workload, while his 4.06 FIP and 4.34 xERA show some regression behind the 3.67 ERA. The recent results have been uneven, but the strikeout and walk profile remains respectable enough to keep Cleveland from being priced out of this game.

Gray has the superior surface ERA, but the underlying numbers aren't nearly as frightening. His current line is 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.06 K/9 and 2.48 BB/9, with a 3.25 xERA and 3.13 DIPS3. Another current leaderboard has him at a 3.83 xERA, 3.50 FIP and 3.89 SIERA. That gap between the actual ERA and the expected numbers is exactly what makes the Boston right-hander vulnerable to being overpriced.

The recent form also takes some of the shine off Gray. His last three starts have produced 19.1 innings, 18 strikeouts and eight walks, with six earned runs allowed. That's solid work, but it is not the kind of dominant stretch that justifies treating Boston as though it has a massive pitching advantage. Griffin has also shown the ability to generate strikeouts, and Cleveland doesn't need him to outduel Gray for seven innings. The objective is to get enough from Griffin and then let the Guardians attack the Boston bullpen.

That's what makes the reverse run line attractive. We aren't paying the normal price on Cleveland, and we're not pretending Griffin is a superior pitcher to Gray. We're buying a beefed-up number because the market is giving Boston too much credit for the ERA column. Gray's underlying metrics are considerably closer to Griffin's than the headline numbers suggest, and Cleveland has the kind of price that makes a two-run victory worth taking a shot at.

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