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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Boston +125 over Tampa Bay

1:45 PM EST. Patrick Sandoval (LHP- BOS, 4.99 ERA) goes against Griffin Jax (RHP- TB, 3.80 ERA) tonight, and the obvious numbers make Tampa Bay look like the better pitching side. Dig underneath that surface and the gap becomes much smaller. Sandoval has a 9.68 K/9 and a 3.81 FIP, with a 23.2% strikeout rate. His 4.53 BB/9 remains the problem, but the swing-and-miss ability is legitimate. His xERA sits around 5.3, so there is no argument for calling him an elite starter, but there is enough strikeout upside to keep Boston in the game.

Jax has been much more efficient with his command, carrying a 3.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 3.81 FIP. He is striking out 25.6% of hitters while walking only 7.7%, which translates to roughly 9.5 K/9 and 2.85 BB/9. The problem for anyone laying a premium price with Tampa Bay is that the current underlying run prevention isn't quite as dominant as the ERA suggests. His xERA is 4.39, more than half a run higher than his actual ERA. That does not make Jax a bad pitcher; it simply makes the price on Tampa Bay less appealing.

The recent form also deserves attention. Jax has been striking hitters out at a strong rate lately, but his workload has been short, with Tampa Bay using him in abbreviated outings. Sandoval has been less consistent, yet his strikeout rate has remained intact. Over his last five starts he has produced 10.3 K/9, while his FIP over that stretch is 4.11. The Boston left-hander has also generated a 30-day strikeout rate above 25%, giving him a current skill that can change the complexion of the game quickly.

This is exactly the type of matchup where the better-looking ERA can attract too much money. Tampa Bay has the cleaner overall pitching line, but Boston has a left-hander with legitimate strikeout stuff facing a starter whose expected numbers are less impressive than his ERA. We are not paying for the prettier stat sheet. We are taking the price and backing the Red Sox to make this a much tighter game than the market expects.

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