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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Minnesota -1½ +140 over Los Angeles

9:38 PM EST. Taj Bradley (RHP- Minnesota, 3.81 ERA) goes against Walbert Ureña (RHP- Los Angeles Angels, 2.88 ERA) in a matchup where the surface numbers make Los Angeles look like the obvious side. The deeper pitching numbers make this much more interesting. Bradley has punched out 190 hitters in 165.1 innings, producing a strong 10.34 K/9, while his current WHIP sits at 1.25. His most recent start was particularly encouraging, allowing just one hit over six scoreless innings while striking out six.

Ureña has done an excellent job keeping runs off the board, but the underlying profile is less dominant than that 2.88 ERA suggests. His xERA is 3.23 and FIP is 3.68, compared with Bradley's stronger strikeout profile. Ureña is sitting at 8.58 K/9 with a 4.39 BB/9, and the walk rate is the area Minnesota can pressure. Bradley's 190 strikeouts give the Twins a pitcher capable of missing bats consistently, and that becomes particularly valuable on the road when laying a run and a half.

The important point with this price is that Minnesota does not need Bradley to completely outduel Ureña. The Twins need to create enough separation to cash the run line, and the pitching profile gives them a legitimate path to doing exactly that. Bradley has been much more effective recently, and his combination of strikeout ability and run prevention gives Minnesota a better foundation than the basic ERA comparison indicates.

This is a classic case of buying the side with the more attractive underlying pitching profile while the market is naturally drawn toward the lower ERA. Ureña deserves respect, but his current xERA, walk rate and strikeout rate leave room for regression, while Bradley's strikeout production gives Minnesota considerably more swing-and-miss ability. Take the beefed-up number with the Twins and look for Minnesota to win by multiple runs.

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