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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Chicago +125 over Cleveland

6:40 PM EST. Sean Newcomb (LHP- CHW, 2.71 ERA) is part of a bullpen game for Chicago, while Gavin Williams (RHP- CLE, 3.78 ERA) gets the start for Cleveland. That distinction is important because Newcomb should not be evaluated as a conventional starter here. He has been an effective weapon out of the White Sox bullpen, carrying a 2.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP across 83 innings with 8.02 K/9 and a 3.14 BB/9. His underlying numbers are solid as well, with a 3.62 xERA and 2.92 FIP, giving Chicago a legitimate bridge into the later innings.

Williams brings the bigger strikeout profile, but Chicago is getting a pitcher whose surface ERA is somewhat better than the underlying run-prevention indicators. He owns a 3.78 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, while his xERA sits at 3.34 and his FIP at 3.49. The right-hander has been outstanding at missing bats, producing 12.14 K/9 against only 2.82 BB/9, with 228 strikeouts over 169 innings. That combination makes him dangerous, but it also means Cleveland is relying heavily on Williams to establish the game before the White Sox can get into the Guardians' bullpen.

A bullpen game sounds like a disadvantage on paper, yet Newcomb has already demonstrated that he can handle multiple innings and keep traffic under control. More importantly, Chicago does not need a dominant starting performance to win this matchup. The White Sox need their pitching staff to keep the game within reach while the offense gets repeated opportunities against a Cleveland starter who has allowed 27 home runs and carries a less dominant run-prevention profile than the strikeout numbers initially suggest. Williams has been excellent lately, including 24 strikeouts over his last three outings, but Chicago is catching Cleveland at a price that gives the White Sox plenty of room for a close game.

Don't automatically dismiss the team using the bullpen simply because the opponent has the recognizable starting pitcher. Chicago has enough pitching depth to turn this into a six- or seven-inning game before the late-inning arms take over, and Newcomb gives them a quality left-handed option to establish that bridge. At plus money, we are willing to take the less obvious side and trust Chicago's overall pitching structure to make Cleveland work for every run.

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