Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
St. Louis +120 over San Francisco
8:10 PM EST. The pitching matchup gives us a legitimate reason to take a shot with St. Louis on the road. Michael McGreevy (RHP- STL, 3.98 ERA) has quietly put together a solid run-prevention season, and his current 6.2 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 show a pitcher who does a good job limiting free passes. His 3.97 ERA comes with a 4.30 FIP, while the Statcast numbers are less convincing with a 5.38 xERA, so we are not pretending McGreevy is an ace. The value comes from his ability to keep the game under control and avoid giving San Francisco extra opportunities.
Logan Webb (RHP- SF, 4.23 ERA) has the bigger name, but the current numbers do not justify treating him as a dominant favorite. Webb is striking out 7.16 batters per nine with a 2.29 BB/9 and 1.16 WHIP, but his 3.44 FIP is considerably better than his ERA. That tells us the surface results have not been terrible, yet San Francisco is still asking him to carry the matchup against a St. Louis club that can put pressure on him without needing to rely on the long ball.
The other piece we like is the way Webb's current home/away profile sets up for this wager. His 2026 numbers show a much higher walk rate on the road, while his overall K-BB% remains respectable but hardly overwhelming. St. Louis does not need a huge performance from McGreevy; it needs him to keep the Giants from creating separation while the Cardinals take advantage of their opportunities.
We are not buying San Francisco simply because Webb carries the bigger reputation. McGreevy has enough control to keep the Cardinals in the game, and the price attached to St. Louis is the part of this matchup that interests us most.
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Our Pick
St. Louis +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)