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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Arizona -1½  +170 over Houston 

8:10 PM EST. Merrill Kelly (RHP- ARI, 5.11 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona against Cristian Javier (RHP- HOU, 8.13 ERA) of Houston. This is not a matchup where the Astros have any clear starting-pitching advantage. Kelly's ERA is certainly nothing to write home about, but Javier comes in with an 8.13 mark and the much greater concern from a run-prevention standpoint. That gives Arizona an opportunity to attack this game early rather than waiting around for the bullpens to decide it.

Javier is the weak link in this pitching matchup. His strikeout stuff can still produce swings and misses, but the overall results have been extremely poor, and the elevated ERA tells us exactly how much trouble he has had keeping runners from scoring. With Houston essentially operating with a bullpen-game approach, Arizona has a chance to see multiple arms after Javier, and that is a favorable setup for a lineup capable of putting pressure on a pitching staff from the opening inning.

The biggest attraction is the number. Arizona is being asked to take the reverse run line on the road, yet the Diamondbacks have the more reliable starting option and are facing a Houston club that is not getting length from its starter. We are not counting on Kelly to completely shut down Houston. We are simply backing the side that has the better opportunity to create separation early against a pitcher carrying an 8.13 ERA before the Astros can start matching up their relievers.

This is exactly the kind of spot where the market can overvalue the home team while overlooking the importance of starting-pitching stability. Arizona has Kelly taking the ball, while Houston is hoping Javier can give them a few useful innings before turning things over to the bullpen. We are taking Arizona on the reverse run line, plus the pretty number. The Diamondbacks have the better starting-pitching situation, Javier has been giving up far too much damage, and the opportunity to get to Houston early makes this beefed-up road number worth the risk every time!

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