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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

 Kansas City -1½ +170 over Miami 

7:40 PM EST. Randy Dobnak (RHP- KC, 1.93 ERA) gets the ball for Kansas City against Tyler Phillips (RHP- MIA, 4.50 ERA) of Miami. Dobnak's 1.93 ERA immediately stands out, although the sample size remains small and that is something we have to acknowledge when evaluating his current numbers. Still, he has been extremely effective at preventing runs during his opportunities on the mound, and that gives Kansas City a more encouraging starting point with the large price attached.

Phillips enters with a considerably higher ERA, and his current strikeout and walk profile does not give Miami a significant advantage on the mound. The right-hander has not demonstrated the type of swing-and-miss dominance that would make us comfortable laying a substantial price with the Marlins. Kansas City, meanwhile, has a starter carrying a 1.93 ERA, and while we are not going to overstate what is still a limited body of work, the results have been strong enough to justify taking a shot at this number.

This is precisely the type of matchup where the run line becomes appealing. We are not paying a premium for Kansas City to win outright, nor are we pretending Dobnak has suddenly established himself as one of baseball's premier starters. We are taking the position that the gap between these two pitchers is not nearly large enough to warrant the type of price being offered on the home side. The small sample attached to Dobnak is the obvious concern, but the number being offered gives us enough compensation to accept that risk.

Kansas City also gets the benefit of playing this game at home, and the combination of Dobnak's current run prevention and Phillips' less convincing profile gives the Royals a reasonable path to controlling this matchup. There is certainly more uncertainty surrounding Dobnak than the 1.93 ERA would normally suggest, but that uncertainty has already been accounted for in the price. We are willing to risk the small sample size on Dobnak because of the beefed-up number attached to Kansas City on the run line. We want this kind of number all season long------see you at the window!

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