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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

NY Mets +115 over HoustonChristian Scott (RHP- New York Mets, 3.74 ERA)

Hunter Brown (RHP- Houston, 3.53 ERA)

7:10 PM EST. This is a matchup where the number matters more than the difference in the ERA column. Hunter Brown has the slightly better mark at 3.53, but Christian Scott is right there at 3.74, leaving very little separation between the two starters from a basic run-prevention standpoint. We are taking the Mets at home because the market is giving Houston too much credit for a pitching edge that simply isn't large enough to justify a significant price.

Scott's current profile gives New York a legitimate chance to control the early portion of this game. The right-hander has shown the ability to generate swings and misses while keeping the opposition from putting together sustained rallies. Brown has been effective, but his 3.53 ERA does not represent the type of overwhelming advantage that should have us running toward the Houston side. This is much closer to a pick'em pitching matchup than the market may suggest.

The Mets are the side we want because we are getting the better setting with a starting pitcher who has been competitive enough to keep the game within reach. Brown's numbers deserve respect, but there is no major statistical gap here. Once the starters are separated by only a few tenths of a run in ERA, the supporting factors become much more important, and home field gives New York the edge we are looking for.

We are not asking Scott to outpitch Brown by a wide margin. We are asking him to match him, and the current numbers indicate that is a reasonable expectation. New York is the play at home. The pitching matchup is too close to justify making Houston the favorite, and we will take the Mets and the better value today.

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