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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

St. Louis +145 over Philadelphia

Kyle Leahy (RHP – St. Louis) – 3.46 ERA
Zack Wheeler (RHP – Philadelphia) – 2.70 ERA

2:15 PM EST. Kyle Leahy has quietly become one of the more dependable starters in baseball, and his recent work makes St. Louis particularly attractive at home. Leahy has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts, posting a 1.49 ERA and a 19% K-BB rate during that stretch. Over the past month, the profile gets even stronger with a 2.35 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.80 xERA and a 24% K-BB rate. He is generating plenty of ground balls while limiting the free passes, which has allowed him to consistently pitch out of trouble.

Zack Wheeler's 2.70 ERA remains impressive, but his current form is nowhere near as convincing. Over his last three starts, Wheeler has surrendered nine earned runs across just 10.1 innings while issuing six walks. He has still generated strikeouts, but the recent combination of traffic and run prevention has been a clear step backward. His current xERA and K-BB profile also don't provide the same level of dominance that his season ERA suggests.

The Cardinals present a difficult matchup for Wheeler because they have been putting together quality at-bats against right-handed pitching without relying heavily on strikeouts. That matters against a pitcher who has recently been forced into too many extended innings. Meanwhile, Leahy is coming off an eight-strikeout, zero-walk performance and continues to demonstrate excellent command. The contrast in current form is significant despite the sizable gap between the two season ERAs.

St. Louis is the side to back at home. Leahy has been outstanding for more than a month, and his 2.80 xERA and 24% K-BB rate confirm that the recent success is backed by legitimate underlying performance. Wheeler remains capable of missing bats, but his recent command and run-prevention issues make Philadelphia far less attractive at the current price. The Cardinals have the better current pitching situation and are in position to hand the Phillies another frustrating night.

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